Shoppers have rushed to the sales to beat the impending VAT rise.

Retailers are in for a rocky start to 2010 according to analysts as the VAT rate returns to 17.5% on 1 January.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) has calculated that the VAT cut has boosted consumer spending by around £6.8 billion. But it says when the cut is reversed at the start of the New Year it has the “potential to stall an emerging recovery”

Experian said that 2009’s Boxing Day sales data would be critical this year, following 12 months of disappointing retail sales figures.

The company’s retail experts commented that as Boxing Day fell on a Saturday – a day which usually accounts for 25% of retailers weekly revenues – it had the potential to rival the preceding days before Christmas as the biggest shopping day of the year.

According to its figures released today, the information services company was not wrong - the number of shoppers taking to the high street on the 26 December was up by 18.5% compared to 2008 as Experian said people rushed to beat the VAT increase.

“Worryingly, the recent surge of shoppers could be short-lived as we are now only days away from the imminent VAT increase on 1 January,” said Experian Analyst Sharma Manan.

“Sales which would have been made in 2010 are happening now, already bringing forward next year’s sales.”

Despite the gloomy picture from retail analysts, research from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) has shown that retailers are feeling rather more positive.

In its latest 2010 Concerns Snapshot Survey, four out of five retailers expect retail sales in 2010 to be the same as 2009, with just over a fifth believing sales would be better and none who responded to the survey believing they would be worse.

However, Stephen Robertson, Director General of the BRC, remained cautious about the year ahead despite the seemingly healthy festive retail performance: “Whether sales growth this year makes up all the ground lost last December is the key question but certainly more customers have felt confident enough about their own circumstances to spend – a modestly encouraging sign for the overall economy.”

But Mr Robertson attacked the government for putting business low on its list of priorities: “Politicians of all parties must recognise it is business that’ll take us out of recession with retail leading the way. They must bring the public finances under control while avoiding excessive tax rises that would undermine demand, jobs and consumer confidence.”