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UK unemployment could reach 3 million by 2012

11:33am GMT, Thursday, 10 June 2010

The CIPD has predicted that UK job losses could reach a “post recession peak” of 3 million. The CIPD has predicted UK job losses could reach a “post recession peak” of 3 million.

Under the new coalition government’s deficit reduction measures, UK unemployment could reach close to 3 million and any subsequent return to low unemployment could be delayed, according to predictions by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD).

Overall, the organisation predicts that unemployment will rise to a high of 2.95 million in the latter half of 2012 and remain close to that level until 2015. Wages will also be affected, with little prospect of growth coupled with real wage cuts in the public sector.

The Institute also envisaged a cut in public sector jobs of around 725,000, however stated that private sector jobs were also at risk, particularly in light of the slowing of “an already anaemic recovery” which will only serve to defer improvements in job prospects.

Dr John Philpott, CIPD’s Chief Economic Adviser, said:  “Although tough fiscal medicine is unavoidable and may boost the UK’s long-run economic growth and job prospects, reliance on cuts in public spending rather than tax increases as the primary means of cutting the deficit makes the short-term outlook especially bleak for those individuals and communities already suffering the greatest hardship in society.

“This will present a major challenge to a government that aims to reduce the deficit while also alleviating poverty, enhancing social mobility and mending a broken society.”

The CIPD plans to review its forecast at the time of the Emergency Budget on June 22.

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