Reduced airline capacity over the winter months could potentially raise the cost of air travel.

The number of airline seats will be dramatically reduced in the last three months of the year according to the Official Airline Guide (OAG), which has reported a 7% drop in flight numbers and seat capacity – equating to 59.7 million fewer seats – when compared with the same period last year.

The OAG also forecasts widespread fleet reductions of more than 3,500 craft and the loss of all air services at 275 airports worldwide, all of which could potentially lead to an increase in airfares during the run-up to Christmas.

The impact of the September 11 events in 2001 saw a drop in global airline capacity of 5%. At an anticipated 7% drop for the end of 2008, the global flight information and industry data supplier has described the cuts as “potentially the most widespread crisis to hit the aviation industry in recent memory”.

Steve Casley, OAG’s Chief Operating Officer, explained the reason for the drop in capacity: “In the last 10 years steady growth [within the industry] has been interrupted twice:  first, by the meltdown of the global economy in 2001 following the burst of the internet bubble, which was compounded by a year of crises with the traumatic events of 9/11, the Gulf War and the SARS epidemic within Asia; and second – on the immediate horizon – by the extraordinary impact that the rising cost of oil is having on the global economy.”

The US, once the “largest theatre of airline activity in the world”, is the worst-hit by the reductions, accounting for 33% of the total global decline in seat capacity that will bring the market to its lowest level in 10 years. The Asian market, one of the fastest growing in recent times, also looks set to suffer a large decrease – potentially up to a 13% reduction in capacity.

“From OAG’s statistics, it looks quite possible that we may be facing a far more severe global downturn than we have experienced before. The industry’s resilience will be pushed to its limits in the coming months, with carriers, airports and passengers alike all waiting and watching for a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel,” concluded Casley.

A number of airlines have already announced cuts in services and capacity, including British Airways and Ryanair, which has announced the grounding of 19 of its aircraft over the winter months.