• Factory orders balance at -28 in CBI survey
• Export orders balance at -21
• Quarterly survey shows optimism at a 14-month low

The recovery in British manufacturing has stumbled, with factory orders falling at the sharpest rate since April and optimism reaching a 14-month low.

The Confederation of British Industry’s monthly manufacturing survey showed the orders balance dropped to -28 this month from -17 in September. Export orders fell at the fastest rate since February, with that balance at -21 from -5 in September. The balance is the difference between the percentage of manufacturers reporting an increase or above normal orders, and those reporting a decrease or below normal orders.

The CBI’s quarterly survey, which was conducted in parallel, showed a sharp worsening in business optimism to the lowest levels since July 2009.

Cost pressures show no signs of abating, putting further pressure on manufacturers’ profit margins.

Samuel Tombs at Capital Economics said the numbers suggest the manufacturing recovery is built on fragile foundations.

“Of particular concern is the sharp fall in the export orders balance, suggesting that the lower pound is still struggling to provide much support to the export-focused sector,” he said. “Sensing the gloomier outlook, firms have also become much less optimistic about the future. Overall, then, the CBI’s survey adds to the growing weight of evidence suggesting that the overall recovery could fade quite sharply in the months ahead.”

Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight echoed those comments, saying: “There are some worrying developments in the survey that will do little to ease fears that manufacturing activity is faltering appreciably after a robust first half of the year.

“The concern is that manufacturers will see softer growth over the coming months as stock rebuilding winds down, tighter fiscal policy increasingly weighs down on domestic demand, and slower global growth hits foreign demand for UK products.”

For the time being, manufacturers are still quite confident about their ability to raise production in the coming months, with the output expectations balance climbing to 18, the highest since March 2008, and compared with 12 in September.

The CBI expressed some confidence that the manufacturing recovery was still on track. “The recovery in the manufacturing sector is well grounded and is expected to continue, despite the soft patch last quarter,” said Ian McCafferty, the CBI’s chief economic adviser. “Over the next three months firms predict a strong rise in output driven by predictions of further export orders growth, while support from stock-building fades.”

The latest official figures showed that British manufacturers ramped up production at the fastest annual rate since 1994 in August, but experts have warned of tougher times ahead.

Business: Manufacturing sector | guardian.co.uk